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Entering the planet's most popular museum in broad daylight, taking eight items of invaluable Napoleonic jewellery and disappearing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, carried out for international notoriety and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Experts who observe patterns in international art crime, however, see Sunday morning’s robbery at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the most recent in a string of smash-and-grab thefts focused more on the monetary worth of precious stones or metals than the historical importance, perpetuating a trend that has emerged over the last decade in Europe, Britain and the US. The location, they propose, would have been of lesser importance to the criminals.

“You may ask why criminals who want to steal valuable jewellery are entering a globally renowned museum rather than a Cartier store,” said Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is better protected.”

A series of aggressive retail store thefts mean that many outlets have strengthened their security in the past few years, with security personnel on their premises and wares no longer shown overnight. Museums, meanwhile, look vulnerable, partly because of the inherent factor of being accessible institutions in historic buildings, and partly the financial situation in many western countries.

“After the pandemic, governments across the globe have cut back on police and the arts funding,” said Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it shows how vulnerable our museums have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The theft of the objects – featuring necklaces made up of precious stones and hundreds of gems, the crown of a historical figure featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and a hugely valuable crown once possessed by a royal that the robbers dropped by the roadside on their way out – has naturally been compared with the 1911 theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, performed by the Italian handyman the thief.

More relevant comparisons may be the recent burglary of jewellery from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over millions, the theft of a multi-million pound valuable object from Blenheim Palace the same year, the 2017 robbery of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a series of robberies of sports memorabilia from American institutions.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would find it hard to find a buyer. “There’s no way to sell something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the legal marketplace”, said an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, especially given the cultural authorities has published photos of the items. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see documentation establishing legal possession before touching such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, institutions were often hesitant to announce publicly about the disappearance of famous works of art and would stay silent out of shame. These days, as cultural robberies are more widely publicised, the storage and sale of taken items is dangerous for any criminal.

“If you steal a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes valueless, and you have to devise a plan to keep it in hiding, maybe by passing it around difficult criminal actors,” said Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the risk of an partner telling the police to collect a reward.”

For similar reasons, an investigator said it was vanishingly unlikely that the robbery had been ordered. “Commissioned theft is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the newspapers. If you acquire these, if you are apprehended, you end up in prison. You can't display it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your family.”

Altering taken items by melting down or reshaping does lower the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with significant danger because modern methods give stones a bigger and brighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a coverup.

Importantly, however, dismantling or re-cutting eliminates the proof of the crime. “My guess is that the Louvre thieves will try to bring the stolen goods to locations with gem knowledge like Israel, another nation or even as close as Antwerp, and find someone to remove the gems,” said Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about protective steps at the institution, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be released soon criticising “considerable” and “persistent” slow progress in updating systems and noting that surveillance were lacking in many rooms. But specialists say displaying precious items in older structures with a constant flow of guests comes with risks that are not possible to remove entirely.

“Historic buildings are more difficult to protect,” explained Erin Thompson. “They often have large accessible windows that allows for criminals to escape, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you can’t fit them with secure windows.”

The most solid protective measures for structures should be designed “like a fortress”, said a security advisor. “It should include several layers to deter attackers.”

Modern buildings are fitted with advanced surveillance systems or in-built seismic detectors that alert about a broken glass in real time, but historic institutions may be hesitant to uglify their exteriors. Laser scanners can be hard to install to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be disabled during the day as hordes of visitors stomp through a museum.

The timing of the Louvre raid, which occurred between morning hours in Paris, was common of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. Frequently when security rotate and before the museum is crowded who actually act as extra protection.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new gadgets that can raise the alarm more quickly and efficiently, but it has also given robbers new tools with which to bypass protections. In Paris, the robbers accessed the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and cut through a glass pane with a battery-powered disc cutter.

An author said the discussion in France about the 232-year-old building had primarily centered on visitor management in recent years, and less on security.

The institution has an on-site brigade of about fifty permanent firefighters, but their purpose is mainly to protect the artworks from blazes and flooding. “There is no quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to government support and money, and at present France simply has no money.”