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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

However the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent strugglers ascending together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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